ICSG: Copper Market to Transition to Major Supply Surplus in 2024

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that copper market is likely to witness a transition from supply-demand balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year.

The meeting predicted that copper production will exceed consumption by 467,000 metric tons in 2024. This is significantly higher when matched with the projected surplus of 297,000 metric tons after its previous meeting in April this year. However, the study group expects the market to remain in deficit in 2023, although it has lowered the deficit forecast to 27,000 metric tons, as compared with the April forecast of 114,000 tons.

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Earlier in April, ICSG had predicted 1.6% surge in expected demand outside of China in 2023. In its latest meeting, it noted that the copper usage outside China is likely to contract by 1%, compared with the previous year level. The Western demand is expected to decline, whereas the apparent copper usage in China is expected to grow by 4.3% in this year, the study group said.

ICSG noted that the market has already started to witness jump in global refined copper production, which it foresees at 4.6% next year. The refined production growth for 2023 too has been revised upwards to 3.8% from 2.6% in April meeting.

The expansion of smelting and refining capacity in China will boost metal production in China. The production outside China will be restricted on account of operating constraints and maintenance outages at major producing countries including Chile, Indonesia, Sweden and the U.S.