JPMorgan Predicts U.S. Copper Production Surge to Reverse Decades of Decline
Copper | 2026-11-04 04:28:52
The projected recovery comes as Washington seeks to strengthen domestic critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on foreign producers.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): JPMorgan Chase sees a potential revival in US copper mining, with planned projects and expansions likely to add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual production capacity. The expansion could more than double domestic output. However, most new supply is expected to emerge after 2030.
In terms of potential copper supply growth, the investment bank ranks the US third among global countries, only behind Chile and Argentina. Incidentally, U.S. mined copper production has declined to approximately 1 million tonnes annually, roughly half its level three decades ago, reflecting prolonged underinvestment.
The projected recovery comes as Washington seeks to strengthen domestic critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on foreign producers. However, expensive mine development, lengthy permitting procedures and insufficient processing infrastructure remain significant obstacles.
Arizona's proposed Resolution Copper project represents the largest potential contributor, accounting for approximately half of JPMorgan's estimated additional capacity. At full capacity, the project could supply up to 25% of US copper demand. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan offers a nearer-term opportunity through expansions at existing operations. JPMorgan estimates the producer could add more than 250,000 tonnes of annual output through brownfield developments.
The bank estimates US copper projects require approximately $28,000 in capital investment per tonne of annual capacity.
POLL
Which factor poses the biggest challenge to the proposed expansion of U.S. copper mining?
Frequently Asked Questions
- How much could U.S. copper production capacity increase through planned projects and expansions?
According to JPMorgan Chase, planned projects and expansions could add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual copper production capacity. This increase could more than double current domestic mined copper output, which stands at approximately 1 million tonnes annually.
- Which U.S. copper mining project could contribute the most to future production growth?
The proposed Resolution Copper project in Arizona is expected to be the largest potential contributor, accounting for approximately half of JPMorgan's estimated additional capacity. Once fully operational, the project could supply up to 25% of total U.S. copper demand.
- What are the major challenges facing the U.S. copper mining expansion?
High capital requirements, lengthy permitting procedures and insufficient domestic processing infrastructure remain significant challenges. JPMorgan estimates capital investment of approximately $28,000 per tonne of annual production capacity. Furthermore, most of the anticipated additional supply is unlikely to materialize before 2030.
