Copper Prices Slide as Macquarie Flags Oversupply and Investor-Driven Rally Correction
Copper | 2026-03-30 05:47:41
Macquarie noted that the market appears “overpriced and oversupplied,” highlighting a lack of genuine physical tightness.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper prices weakened further on Thursday, with May futures falling 1.5% to $5.47 per pound, equivalent to just above $12,000 per tonne. The red metal has now declined more than 16%, or roughly $2,400 per tonne, from its record high reached in late January.
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According to a recent analysis by Macquarie Strategy, copper’s sharp rally since December was largely driven by investor inflows rather than underlying market fundamentals. Trading activity surged significantly, with volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumping 80% in January compared to December. Meanwhile, combined open interest across New York, London and Shanghai rose by $9.5 billion before reversing, plunging $24.6 billion through February and March alongside the price correction.
Macquarie noted that the market appears “overpriced and oversupplied,” highlighting a lack of genuine physical tightness. Global inventories have risen by over 1 million tonnes since early 2025, with stocks on the London Metal Exchange hitting six-year highs and COMEX inventories reaching record levels.
Although Chinese demand has shown signs of recovery amid lower prices, consumption elsewhere remains weak. The bank expects continued volatility, warning that copper prices may face further downside pressure.
POLL
What will be the key driver of copper prices in the near term?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why have copper prices fallen recently?
Prices declined as speculative inflows reversed and market fundamentals showed signs of oversupply.
- What does the inventory trend indicate?
Global copper stocks have increased significantly, signaling a lack of physical tightness in the market.
- What is the outlook for copper prices?
Analysts expect continued volatility with downside risk due to weak demand and elevated supply levels.
