Copper Price Rally Drives Higher 2026 Forecasts Amid Surplus Warnings
Copper | 2026-10-15 05:59:20
Production increases at major mining operations, including Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Centinela, coupled with additional output from new and restarted projects, could boost availability.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper price forecasts for 2026 have climbed for the second time in three months, with analysts adjusting projections to reflect the metal’s strong performance. At the same time, they warn that supply-demand fundamentals could weigh on prices beyond this year.
Macquarie expects copper to average $13,573 per tonne in 2026, while BMO Capital Markets forecasts $13,619 and BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, projects $13,500.
However, projections for 2027 differ considerably. Macquarie raised its annual average forecast by 14% to $12,750 per tonne, citing anticipated mine supply growth and weaker demand. The bank estimates a 223,000-tonne surplus in 2026, potentially expanding to more than 700,000 tonnes annually from 2027.
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Why have copper prices hit a record high?
Production increases at major mining operations, including Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Centinela, coupled with additional output from new and restarted projects, could boost availability. Meanwhile, Chinese copper demand faces pressure from declining construction activity and increased use of aluminium as a substitute.
Global visible copper inventories have risen by approximately 300,000 tonnes this year, largely reflecting stock accumulation in the United States. Excluding the US, inventories have declined by 168,000 tonnes.
Meanwhile, copper prices retreated after the release of US inflation data and the announcement of a preliminary agreement at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile. The future price movements will depend heavily on US tariff decisions, inventory trends and the pace of global demand recovery, analysts noted.
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What is the primary factor that could weigh on copper prices in 2027?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the major analysts’ copper price forecasts for 2026?
Macquarie expects copper to average $13,573 per tonne in 2026, while BMO Capital Markets forecasts $13,619 per tonne. BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, projects an average price of $13,500 per tonne, reflecting the metal’s strong performance.
- Why could copper prices face pressure in 2027?
Higher mine production, additional output from new and restarted projects, and weaker Chinese demand could create a growing market surplus. Macquarie forecasts a 223,000-tonne surplus in 2026, potentially expanding to more than 700,000 tonnes annually from 2027.
- How are copper inventories changing globally?
Global visible copper inventories have risen by approximately 300,000 tonnes this year, primarily because of stock accumulation in the United States. Excluding the US, inventories have declined by 168,000 tonnes, highlighting regional differences in metal availability.
