Copper Falls 1.2% as Inflation Revives Fed Rate-Hike Risk

COMEX copper fell 1.2% to $6.5810 per pound on October 15, putting the December contract on course for a third consecutive decline as hotter U.S. inflation strengthened the dollar, revived rate-hike expectations and coincided with easing mine-supply concerns.

By Paul Ploumis
Published October 16, 2026

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): COMEX copper for December delivery fell 1.2% to $6.5810 per pound in late-morning New York trading on Thursday, putting the contract on course for a third consecutive daily decline as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation strengthened the dollar and revived expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase.

The move left the most-active copper contract 4.5% below its record close of $6.89 per pound reached on September 9. A third consecutive decline would mark copper's longest losing streak since June, according to Mining.com.

U.S. Inflation Revives Rate-Hike Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, lifting the annual inflation rate to 3.7% from 3.4% in August.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.6% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected core readings of 0.2% and 2.5%, according to CNBC.

The inflation report pushed the Bloomberg Dollar Index to its highest level since May 2025, according to Mining.com.

Futures markets initially raised the implied probability of an October Federal Reserve rate increase to around 50% following the data before that probability eased to below 40% later Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.

Copper Declines Across Major Global Exchanges

The weakness extended beyond the U.S. market.

London Metal Exchange three-month copper slipped 0.9% to $14,360 per tonne in official trading after falling as low as $14,289 during the session.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-active copper contract declined 1.9% to close at 108,940 yuan per tonne.

The broader market backdrop was also risk-off. South Korea's Kospi fell nearly 8% on Thursday as a sell-off in memory-chip stocks spread across Asian technology markets.

Escondida Labor Deal Eases Supply Concerns

Supply concerns also eased after supervisors at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile approved an agreement negotiated by their union with the company, removing the immediate possibility of a work stoppage at the world's largest copper mine, according to Mining.com.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said easing supply concerns arrived alongside the hotter inflation report, encouraging profit-taking in copper, according to Mining.com.

Other supply disruptions remained unresolved. Workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine remained on strike, while Codelco's El Teniente mine was still shut following a landslide the previous week.

Copper Producers Track Metal Lower

Copper producers generally moved lower alongside the metal.

Freeport-McMoRan shares fell 2.4%, while BHP declined 1.4%.

Antofagasta shares dropped 6.4% in London after the company said it expects copper production of between 630,000 and 690,000 tonnes in 2027, below its previous range of 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

Teck Resources shares gained 0.5%.

Despite the latest retreat, COMEX copper remained up approximately 17% in 2026.

Chinese Inventories Add Pressure to Near-Term Demand

Guangzhou Futures analysts also pointed to rising Chinese copper inventories and elevated prices as factors weighing on downstream purchasing and near-term demand, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The inflation data followed the Federal Reserve's September decision to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%.

Energy prices were a major contributor to September inflation. U.S. gasoline prices rose 9.1% during the month and were 34.2% higher than a year earlier.

The U.S. dollar had already been on course for its longest winning streak in nearly two years as of the previous Friday, supported by elevated oil prices and expectations of additional Federal Reserve tightening.

Courtesy: www.qz.com