Copper Deficits Predicted to Push Prices to Fresh Peaks

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Geneva-headquartered trading house Mercuria has predicted record prices for copper in the near term.

According to Nicholas Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, copper concentrate is likely to witness a deficit of 700,000 metric tons this year. This will lead to a 300,000 ton deficit for the refined metal, thus pushing copper prices to record high levels sooner than later.

ALSO READ:

ICSG Released Copper Market Forecast for 2025 and 2026

Copper Market in African Continent to Witness Significant Growth

Speaking at the recently held LME Asia Week conference in Hong Kong, Snowdon pointed out that copper market currently stands in an acute state of vulnerability. The market is likely to move into a state of scarcity in the second half of 2025. He identified stagnant output and supply disruptions as major market deterrents.

According to Snowdon, massive amounts of copper have been moved to the United States in preparation for possible import taxes imposed by the Trump government. In the next days, shipments of the metal to the United States will be further accelerated by the COMEX price premium and the possibility of duties.

Snowdon estimated that in Q2 2025, almost 500,000 metric tons of copper would be exported to the United States. between the meanwhile, researchers at UBC predict that between 450,000 and 500,000 tons of copper will be exported between March and May alone, which is between 250,000 and 300,000 tons more than the typical amount.