2025 Market Review: When Commodity Volatility Reset the Scrap Market and Set the Stage for 2026
Headlines | 2025-12-31 11:54:03
Volatility defined commodity markets in 2025, with precious metals outperforming and industrial metals facing sharp policy-driven swings. As 2026 approaches, the scrap market is shifting from price discovery toward access and availability. Here is ScrapMonster’s strategic outlook on the year ahead.
By Commodity markets in 2025 experienced heightened volatility, with precious metals outperforming and industrial metals facing policy-driven price swings. As 2026 approaches, evolving export discussions in Europe and changing quota frameworks in Asia are raising questions about scrap availability, regional pricing divergence, and the balance between global benchmarks and local market conditions.
2025 Market Review: A Year Defined by Volatility
Commodity markets in 2025 were marked less by steady trends and more by abrupt shifts in sentiment, policy, and capital flows. For participants across the scrap and recycling supply chain, volatility became a constant rather than an exception.
Precious metals attracted significant inflows as investors responded to persistent inflation concerns, currency uncertainty, and geopolitical risk. Industrial metals, by contrast, experienced sharp price swings driven by trade policy and supply-chain disruptions.
For scrap market participants, the result was a year where timing, data visibility, and regional awareness increasingly separated profitable operations from exposed ones.
Precious Metals: Capital Flows and Valuation Risk
Gold and silver were among the strongest performers across the commodities complex in 2025. Supported by safe-haven demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, gold prices pushed beyond historical thresholds, while silver posted outsized gains relative to other asset classes.
For scrap yards and refiners holding precious metal-bearing material, this created heightened inventory valuation risk. Price spreads widened, and the decision to hold or sell inventory became increasingly sensitive to short-term market movements.
In this environment, access to timely and verified pricing data proved critical in managing exposure and preserving margins.
Industrial Metals: Policy-Driven Whiplash
While precious metals benefited from capital inflows, industrial metals faced a different set of challenges.
Copper prices experienced pronounced volatility throughout the year, reflecting a combination of shifting demand expectations, supply constraints, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Aluminum and steel markets were further shaped by evolving trade dynamics.
Trade and Tariff Pressures
Renewed discussion around tariffs on steel and aluminum introduced additional friction into North American scrap flows. Cross-border movements between the United States, Canada, and Mexico faced renewed scrutiny, contributing to localized price divergence.
Global Supply Imbalances
At the same time, oversupply conditions in certain global steel markets weighed on export pricing for much of the year. Scrap sellers reliant on export destinations such as Turkey and India faced compressed margins as global price signals weakened.
Looking Ahead to 2026: From Price to Access
As the market transitions into 2026, the central risk facing the scrap industry is shifting. Price volatility remains important, but availability and access are becoming equally critical variables.
Policy discussions in several major economies point toward tighter controls on raw material exports, particularly for metals considered strategically important to domestic manufacturing and energy transitions.
Europe: Export Policy Under Review
European policymakers continue to evaluate measures that could limit aluminum scrap exports, with the stated goal of retaining secondary raw materials for domestic use. While specific frameworks remain under development, the direction of travel suggests increasing friction in outbound scrap flows.
China: Evolving Quota Frameworks
China’s ongoing adjustments to steel and metals export quotas signal a more controlled approach to outbound material. These measures may support price stability but could further constrain availability for international buyers.
Strategic Implications for Scrap Market Participants
The defining shift entering 2026 is a move away from globally uniform pricing toward regionally driven market dynamics.
Regional premiums may increasingly diverge from global benchmarks
Local supply relationships will matter more than headline prices
Speed and accuracy of market intelligence will become a competitive advantage
In this environment, success will depend less on reacting to published averages and more on understanding real-time regional conditions.
Conclusion: Preparing for a Constrained Market
The scrap market exits 2025 more complex, more fragmented, and more sensitive to policy than in prior years. As 2026 approaches, operators should expect tighter flows, increased competition for material, and greater divergence between regions.
Navigating this environment requires decision-grade intelligence, not assumptions.
ScrapMonster provides verified pricing, regional market insight, and daily intelligence designed to help market participants operate with confidence in a constrained global environment.
Data Source: ScrapMonster Price Index, December 2025.
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What is your biggest concern for the scrap market in 2026?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Will scrap metal prices go up in 2026?
Market indicators point to a bullish year for domestic premiums. While global volatility remains, the combination of EU aluminum export bans and China’s steel quotas is expected to restrict global supply. This "artificial scarcity" will likely drive up prices for North American scrap, particularly for high-grade copper and aluminum, as domestic mills compete for limited local material.
- How will the 2026 EU export ban affect aluminum prices?
The EU’s move to restrict aluminum scrap exports (aimed for Spring 2026) is a game-changer. By trapping supply within Europe, the global market loses a major feedstock source. This is expected to create a "supply vacuum" in other regions, potentially raising the value of North American aluminum scrap as buyers look to replace European tons.
- Is the Commodity Super-Cycle over for scrap metal?
Likely not. The structural drivers of the 2025 super-cycle—a weakening dollar, the green energy transition’s demand for copper, and geopolitical friction—remain intact. However, 2026 will shift from a general "rising tide" to a market defined by regional availability. We expect prices to decouple, with regions that have secure access to scrap (like North America) seeing different price action than import-reliant nations.
- Should scrap yards focus on export or domestic markets in 2026?
2026 is projected to be "The Year of the Wall," meaning global free trade is tightening. With tariffs returning and logistics fracturing, domestic partnerships will be safer and potentially more profitable than risky export bookings. Yards should focus on building relationships with local mills and foundries to insulate themselves from global export taxes and logistics snarls.
- How do tariffs affect scrap steel prices?
Tariffs essentially create two separate markets. As seen with the 25% duties in 2025, tariffs can de-link North American domestic prices from the global index. While global prices might be suppressed by overseas oversupply (like Chinese billets), tariffs act as a shield, often allowing domestic scrap prices to trade at a premium relative to the world market.
