Copper
Three-month LME copper recently moved back toward $13,900 a tonne as risk sentiment improved, the dollar softened and physical supply conditions in China tightened.
TD Securities sees further downside risk for copper as U.S. tariff expectations weaken and questions emerge over AI data-centre demand. LME copper fell near $13,779 per tonne on November 6, while slower U.S. stockpiling could add pressure.
Three-month LME copper closed at $13,768 per tonne on November 6, its lowest closing level since July. Concerns over U.S. import tariff prospects and future AI data-centre investment weighed on the metal, while mine supply constraints remained a counterweight.
Chile's Codelco has disclosed substantial irregularities in its 2024–2025 copper production and inventory records, with a preliminary financial impact of up to US$140 million. The miner is strengthening internal controls and reviewing its investment strategy amid declining output and mounting costs.
The global copper rally is benefiting low-cost miners while intensifying pressure on smelters, according to Financial Times analysis. Zijin Mining's copper concentrate gross margin climbed to 71%, while China's excess smelting capacity has pushed processing charges to historic lows. The World Bank forecasts copper averaging $13,000 per metric ton in 2027.
JPMorgan estimates that U.S. copper mining projects could add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual production capacity, potentially more than doubling current domestic mine output. Resolution Copper accounts for nearly half the projected growth, while Freeport-McMoRan offers nearer-term expansion potential. High development costs, permitting and limited processing infrastructure remain obstacles.
Deeply negative copper concentrate treatment charges are making it harder to assess the true balance between mine supply and smelter demand. Recent deals involving Antofagasta and Teck Resources have reached unusually low levels, but by-product revenues and customized contract provisions complicate the headline figures as negotiations for the 2027 benchmark begin.
Chile's copper commission Cochilco expects national production to fall 8.4% to 4.94 million metric tons in 2026, a sharper contraction than previously forecast. Lower ore grades and mine disruptions have weighed on output. The agency also reduced its 2027 production outlook while raising copper price forecasts for both years.
The World Bank has raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 per tonne, citing constrained mine supply and growing demand from electricity grids, data centres and electric vehicles. U.S. tariff uncertainty continues to influence global copper trade flows.
China's copper import premium reached $205/MT on October 28 as physical supplies tightened despite forecasts of a global refined copper surplus. Large U.S. stockpiles and uncertainty over potential tariffs continue to influence international copper flows, while Chinese fabricators face rising procurement costs.
New York regulators are urging the FCC to slow AT&T’s proposed discontinuance of certain legacy business landline services, citing public-safety concerns, customer migration risks and questions over federal authority.
Copper slipped on October 21 as LME inventories climbed and near-term supply concerns eased, even as European buyers faced record 2027 premiums. Nickel jumped 4.1% on expectations of possible Indonesian production cuts.
Copper has gained nearly 16% in 2026 as AI infrastructure, power-grid investment and defense spending strengthen demand. Investors increasingly view the metal as a strategic resource, while tight supply and U.S. tariff uncertainty add support.
Copper could enter a structural mine-supply deficit from 2028 despite near-term refined surpluses. BloombergNEF estimates $332 billion of new mine investment is needed as global demand rises 61% to nearly 46 million tonnes by 2050.
U.S. copper inventories have climbed above 1.6 million tonnes as tariff expectations redirected metal into American warehouses. With COMEX stocks exceeding 700,000 tonnes, traders are watching whether policy changes could again trigger the kind of market reversal seen in 2025.
COMEX copper fell 1.2% to $6.5810/lb on October 15, putting the December contract on course for a third straight decline as hotter U.S. inflation strengthened the dollar and revived expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
Macquarie, BMO and BMI now forecast 2026 copper prices within a narrow $119-per-tonne range, but their longer-term outlooks diverge as rising mine supply, U.S. stockpiles and tariff uncertainty reshape the market.
U.S. copper inventories are estimated at roughly 1.6 million tonnes as the tariff-driven trade that pulled metal into American warehouses begins to lose momentum. COMEX still holds about 70% of global visible exchange stocks, leaving copper plentiful in the U.S. but comparatively tight elsewhere.
Copper prices moved higher as a fatal landslide at Codelco’s El Teniente mine and an ongoing strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela operation added to supply concerns. China’s Yangshan copper premium has also reached a four-year high, pointing to strong demand for imported metal despite rising SHFE inventories.
Coface says copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade as supply growth fails to keep pace with rising demand. Copper could face a refined supply gap of up to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, while nickel faces an even larger potential deficit under a net-zero scenario.
LME copper gained 1% to US$14,617.50 per tonne as Chinese traders returned from a week-long holiday and a strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine in Chile added supply concerns. Zinc, aluminum and iron ore also advanced.
Copper supply, demand and future availability will take center stage at BIR Malaga 2026 on October 26. The Non-Ferrous Metals session will examine European copper fundamentals, recycled-material availability and how changing export rules could reshape international copper flows.
Florence Copper has officially launched commercial operations at its Arizona facility, the first new greenfield source of U.S. copper production since 2008. The operation is ramping toward 85 million pounds of annual copper capacity and is expected to produce at least 1.5 billion pounds over 22 years.
LME copper rose 1.2% to $14,427 per metric ton as reduced expectations for an October U.S. rate hike and potential labor disruptions at major Chilean mines outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar. Traders are also watching China’s return from its national holiday for fourth-quarter demand signals.
Philadelphia is installing anti-theft hardware, moving wiring to harder-to-reach locations and replacing some copper with lower-value aluminum after repeated thefts disrupted parks and athletic fields. City officials say copper theft is costing millions in repairs, including about $800,000 at Bartram's Garden.