Copper, Nickel Prices Could Nearly Double by 2035 Amid Supply Constraints

Copper | 2026-10-08 05:38:50 | By Paul Ploumis

Copper faces a potential refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to around 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the shortfall could even reach 17%.

Summary

Copper and nickel face significant supply shortages
Coface expects aluminum, copper and nickel to face average supply deficits of around 10% of demand by 2035. Copper supply is forecast to grow just 1% annually, while nickel output may rise 1.5%, compared with approximately 1.8% annual demand growth for both metals.
Energy transition to drive metals demand
Electrification, construction and clean-energy technologies are expected to significantly increase consumption of copper and nickel. The energy transition alone could account for about 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035, while expanding data centers are expected to add further pressure on copper supplies.
China maintains a dominant refining position
Copper could face a refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, while nickel could see an even larger shortfall under a net-zero scenario. Coface also highlighted China's dominance, noting that the country controls about 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade, according to a new report from global financial services firm Coface. This is mainly due to anticipated high demand from electrification, construction and clean-energy technologies.

The report projects that aluminum, copper and nickel could face average supply deficits of about 10% of demand by 2035. Copper supply is expected to grow only 1% annually over the coming decade, while nickel output is forecast to increase 1.5% a year. Demand for both metals is projected to rise about 1.8% annually, the report noted.

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Copper faces a potential refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to around 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the shortfall could even reach 17%.

Nickel presents an even greater risk, with the report estimating a potential deficit of around 35% of projected demand under the net-zero scenario, largely due to battery manufacturing requirements.

The energy transition is expected to account for about 35% of global copper and nickel consumption by 2035. Alongside, data-center expansion is expected to add further pressure to copper demand.

Coface report noted that China controls about 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals. The country accounts for more than 50% of the global steel, aluminum, and refined copper production, it said.