Copper Price Rally Drives Higher 2026 Forecasts Amid Surplus Warnings

Copper | 2026-10-15 06:36:58 | By Paul Ploumis

Production increases at major mining operations, including Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Centinela, coupled with additional output from new and restarted projects, could boost availability.

Summary

Analysts Raise Copper Price Forecasts for 2026
Macquarie, BMO Capital Markets and BMI have increased their copper price projections, with average forecasts ranging from $13,500 to $13,619 per tonne. The revisions reflect copper’s strong performance, although analysts caution that market fundamentals could become less supportive beyond 2026.
Rising Mine Output and Weak Chinese Demand May Create a Surplus
Macquarie projects a copper surplus of 223,000 tonnes in 2026, potentially exceeding 700,000 tonnes annually from 2027. Higher production from major mining operations and new projects, alongside weaker Chinese construction demand and aluminium substitution, could increase supply relative to consumption.
Inventories and US Trade Policy Remain Key Market Drivers
Global visible copper inventories have increased by approximately 300,000 tonnes this year, largely due to stock accumulation in the United States. Copper prices subsequently retreated following US inflation data and a preliminary agreement at BHP’s Escondida mine, while future movements will depend on tariff decisions, inventory trends and global demand.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper price forecasts for 2026 have climbed for the second time in three months, with analysts adjusting projections to reflect the metal’s strong performance. At the same time, they warn that supply-demand fundamentals could weigh on prices beyond this year.

Macquarie expects copper to average $13,573 per tonne in 2026, while BMO Capital Markets forecasts $13,619 and BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, projects $13,500.

However, projections for 2027 differ considerably. Macquarie raised its annual average forecast by 14% to $12,750 per tonne, citing anticipated mine supply growth and weaker demand. The bank estimates a 223,000-tonne surplus in 2026, potentially expanding to more than 700,000 tonnes annually from 2027.

Why have copper prices hit a record high?

Production increases at major mining operations, including Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Centinela, coupled with additional output from new and restarted projects, could boost availability. Meanwhile, Chinese copper demand faces pressure from declining construction activity and increased use of aluminium as a substitute.

Global visible copper inventories have risen by approximately 300,000 tonnes this year, largely reflecting stock accumulation in the United States. Excluding the US, inventories have declined by 168,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, copper prices retreated after the release of US inflation data and the announcement of a preliminary agreement at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile. The future price movements will depend heavily on US tariff decisions, inventory trends and the pace of global demand recovery, analysts noted.