World Bank Forecasts Prolonged Copper Tightness, Bumps 2027 Outlook by 18%

Copper | 2026-10-29 06:16:45 | By Paul Ploumis

According to the bank, next year’s expected average price is just 1.5% below its forecast of $13,200 per tonne for 2026.

Summary

World Bank Raises 2027 Copper Price Forecast
The World Bank has increased its 2027 copper price projection by 18% to $13,000 per tonne in its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook. The forecast is only 1.5% below the bank’s 2026 projection of $13,200 per tonne, indicating expectations of continued strength in the copper market.
Supply Constraints and Electrification Drive Market Outlook
Extended mine development timelines, operational disruptions and declining ore grades are limiting copper supply growth. Meanwhile, demand is expected to strengthen in 2027–28, supported by electric vehicles, electricity grid investments and data centre expansion, despite a slight decline in global copper consumption during the first half of 2026.
Trade Uncertainty Influences Metals Markets
Potential U.S. import tariffs have encouraged copper shipments into American warehouses, widening the price gap between Comex and London Metal Exchange copper. The World Bank expects its metals and minerals price index to rise 25% in 2026 before declining 3.3% in 2027, remaining 16% above its 2021 peak.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The World Bank has raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 per tonne, mainly due to persistent supply constraints and growing demand from electricity infrastructure, data centres and electric vehicles. The revised projection was published in the bank’s October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook.

According to the bank, next year’s expected average price is just 1.5% below its forecast of $13,200 per tonne for 2026. The outlook signals continued strength in the copper market despite broader uncertainty across commodity sectors.

Copper prices bounce as US runs out of warehouse space

Prolonged mine development timelines, operational disruptions and declining ore grades are restricting the rapid expansion of production. Indonesia continues to face weather-related challenges, while operational difficulties and lower-grade deposits are affecting output in Chile.

Copper demand is expected to jump during 2027–28, mainly driven by electric vehicles and increased investments in electricity grids and data centres. It must be noted that global copper consumption has edged lower during the first half of 2026.

Trade uncertainty has further complicated market conditions. Expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs encouraged shipments into American warehouses, widening the price difference between Comex and London Metal Exchange copper.

The World Bank expects its metals and minerals price index to increase 25% in 2026 before declining 3.3% in 2027. Despite the projected correction, the index would remain 16% above its 2021 peak.