JPMorgan Forecast: U.S. Copper Production to More Than Double

Copper  |  2026-11-04 05:07:15   |   By

The projected recovery comes as Washington seeks to strengthen domestic critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on foreign producers.

Summary

  • U.S. Copper Production Could More Than Double

    JPMorgan Chase estimates that planned mining projects and expansions could add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual copper production capacity in the U.S. This could more than double domestic output, which has declined to around 1 million tonnes annually from levels recorded three decades ago.

  • Resolution Copper and Freeport-McMoRan Drive Expansion Prospects

    Arizona's proposed Resolution Copper project could account for nearly half of the projected additional capacity and potentially meet up to 25% of U.S. copper demand at full production. Freeport-McMoRan could provide nearer-term growth, with brownfield expansions potentially adding more than 250,000 tonnes of annual output.

  • High Capital Costs and Regulatory Delays Pose Challenges

    Despite strong growth prospects, most additional copper supply is expected to emerge after 2030. High mine development costs, lengthy permitting procedures and inadequate processing infrastructure remain major obstacles. JPMorgan estimates that U.S. copper projects require approximately $28,000 in capital investment per tonne of annual production capacity.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): JPMorgan Chase sees a potential revival in US copper mining, with planned projects and expansions likely to add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual production capacity. The expansion could more than double domestic output. However, most new supply is expected to emerge after 2030.

In terms of potential copper supply growth, the investment bank ranks the US third among global countries, only behind Chile and Argentina. Incidentally, U.S. mined copper production has declined to approximately 1 million tonnes annually, roughly half its level three decades ago, reflecting prolonged underinvestment.

The projected recovery comes as Washington seeks to strengthen domestic critical mineral supplies and reduce reliance on foreign producers. However, expensive mine development, lengthy permitting procedures and insufficient processing infrastructure remain significant obstacles.

Arizona's proposed Resolution Copper project represents the largest potential contributor, accounting for approximately half of JPMorgan's estimated additional capacity. At full capacity, the project could supply up to 25% of US copper demand. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan offers a nearer-term opportunity through expansions at existing operations. JPMorgan estimates the producer could add more than 250,000 tonnes of annual output through brownfield developments.

The bank estimates US copper projects require approximately $28,000 in capital investment per tonne of annual capacity.

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