worldsteel Short Range Outlook: Global Steel Demand Flat in 2026, Up 1.7% in 2027

Steel News | 2026-10-13 05:39:15 | By Paul Ploumis

The latest outlook represents a downgrade from the April forecast, which anticipated growth of 2.2% next year.

Summary

Global Steel Demand Expected to Recover Moderately in 2027
The World Steel Association’s October 2026 Short Range Outlook projects global steel demand at 1,722 million tonnes in 2026, broadly unchanged from 2025. Demand is forecast to increase by 1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027, below the 2.2% growth anticipated in the association’s April outlook.
India Leads Growth While China Faces Continued Contraction
India is projected to record the strongest demand growth among major steel markets, with consumption rising 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and another 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027. In contrast, China’s steel demand is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 and a further 1% in 2027.
Regional Steel Demand Outlooks Remain Mixed
Developing economies excluding China are forecast to record demand growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. Developed-market demand is expected to rise 1% and 2.2%, respectively, while the European Union faces a 0.3% contraction in 2026 before recovering 3.1% in 2027. U.S. demand is projected to grow 2% in 2026 and approximately 1.5% in 2027.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Global steel demand is expected to remain stagnant in 2026 before returning to moderate growth next year, according to the World Steel Association's (worldsteel) October 2026 Short Range Outlook.

The association forecasts worldwide steel demand at 1,722 million tonnes (Mt) in 2026, broadly unchanged from 2025. The demand is projected to rise 1.7% to 1,752 Mt in 2027. The latest outlook represents a downgrade from the April forecast, which anticipated growth of 2.2% next year.

Worldsteel Forecasts Global Steel Demand at 1.76B Tonnes by 2027

India is expected to record the strongest steel demand growth. Steel demand is forecast to increase 7.9% to 172.4 Mt in 2026 and another 8% to 186.2 Mt in 2027. China's steel demand is projected to decline 2% in 2026 and a further 1% in 2027.

Developing economies excluding China are expected to record demand growth of 1.9% this year and 5.1% next year. The Gulf region faces a sharper near-term setback, with steel consumption forecast to fall approximately 11% in 2026 before rebounding 11.3% in 2027.

In developed markets, demand is projected to grow 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. European Union consumption is expected to contract 0.3% this year before recovering 3.1% next year. U.S. demand is forecast to rise 2% in 2026 and approximately 1.5% in 2027, the report noted.