Global Softwood Market to Face Supply Shortfall Through 2035

Rubber and Wood | 2026-09-14 05:53:17 | By Paul Ploumis

Global softwood roundwood production in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a decline from the record level reached in 2021.

Summary

Softwood Supply Growth to Remain Limited
Global softwood roundwood availability is expected to increase by only around 0.5% per year through 2035. Growing demand from construction, packaging and biomass could put further pressure on available resources.
U.S. South Emerges as Key Supply Growth Region
The U.S. South is expected to provide the largest increase in softwood supply. Canada could post a modest recovery, but its harvest is unlikely to return to previous levels, while Europe faces tighter sustainability constraints.
Regional Challenges Could Restrict Future Output
Russia has substantial unused forest resources, but geopolitical risks, infrastructure limitations and market-access restrictions may hinder development. Latin America and Asia-Pacific are expected to expand production, although climate-related disruptions remain a major risk.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Global softwood markets are heading toward a tighter supply environment, with roundwood availability projected to grow by only around 0.5% annually through 2035, according to the Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook by Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly.

The outlook indicates that demand for softwood timber will continue expanding, driven by construction, packaging and biomass applications. This is expected to outpace the modest increase in the availability of roundwood.

North America softwood lumber market update: Q2 2026

Global softwood roundwood production in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a decline from the record level reached in 2021. There has been a major change in supply patterns as well. North American output has fallen nearly 20% since 2000, while Europe/Russia and other regions have each recorded gains of roughly 18%.

The U.S. South is likely to remain as the major contributor of additional supply. Canada may see a modest recovery after years of declining harvests, although output is unlikely to return to earlier levels. Europe faces greater limitations because harvesting in several areas is already close to sustainable levels.

Russia possesses considerable unused resources, but geopolitical uncertainty, infrastructure gaps and restricted market access are expected to limit development. The Latin America and Asia-Pacific regions are likely to see production gains, although climatic events continue to pose threats.