Gold Prices Fall Below $4,000 Amid Fed, Geopolitical Uncertainty

Gold | 2026-07-21 08:09:53 | By Paul Ploumis

Analysts also noted that open interest in COMEX gold futures has fallen sharply since mid-January, reaching levels last seen in 2009.

Summary

Second weekly decline: LBMA Gold Price PM dropped 2.5% to $3,995/oz, extending its year-to-date loss to 8.5%.
Weaker investor sentiment: Global gold ETFs recorded net outflows, while COMEX gold futures open interest fell to its lowest level since 2009, signaling reduced speculative activity.
Key levels ahead: Analysts expect support at $3,857–$3,887/oz and resistance at $4,067/oz, with geopolitical developments and Fed policy likely to dictate the next move.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Gold prices extended their losses for a second straight week, falling below the key $4,000 per ounce mark as investors reacted to changing expectations for U.S. interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions. Although U.S. inflation came in lower than expected, markets continued to remain due to ongoing U.S.-Iran conflicts and an anticipated hawkish stance by the U.S. Fed.

The LBMA Gold Price PM declined 2.5% over the week to $3,995 per ounce, taking the yellow metal's year-to-date loss to 8.5%. Investor sentiment also weakened, with global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording net outflows.

Gold Prices Head for Biggest Quarterly Decline in 13 Years

Analysts also noted that open interest in COMEX gold futures has fallen sharply since mid-January, reaching levels last seen in 2009. This suggests that speculative trading activity has reduced significantly after gold retreated below its 200-day moving average.

Looking ahead, developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict are expected to remain the biggest driver for gold prices. A de-escalation could ease inflation concerns and support gold through lower interest-rate expectations.

From a technical perspective, analysts see $3,857-$3,887 per ounce as an important support zone, while resistance is expected around $4,067, followed by $4,203 if prices recover. In the event of continued weakness leading to a fall below US$3,857/oz, the next major support is at around US$3,500/oz.