ICSG Sees Global Copper Market Surplus Expanding Through 2027

Copper  |  2026-06-30 05:51:37   |   By

Despite the slower outlook, long-term demand fundamentals remain positive, ICSG noted.

Summary
  • Copper market to remain in surplus: The ICSG forecasts a 96,000-tonne refined copper surplus in 2026, expanding to 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
  • Supply growth outpaces demand: Global mine production is expected to rise 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, while refined output growth accelerates to 3% in 2027.
  • Demand outlook revised lower: Global refined copper demand is projected to grow 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, although long-term consumption prospects remain positive.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The global copper market is expected to remain adequately supplied over the next two years, according to the latest forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This is primarily on account of anticipated robust mine production and refined output growth.

The ICSG projects a 96,000-tonne surplus in the refined copper market during 2026, with the surplus expected to widen sharply to 377,000 tonnes in 2027.

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Global copper mine production is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The 2026 estimate has been lowered from earlier projections due to weaker output expectations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia. On the other hand, ICSG foresees production gains from several countries, including Mongolia, Russia, China, and Uzbekistan.

Meanwhile, world refined copper production is expected to rise by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating to 3% in 2027.

On the demand side, the ICSG now expects global refined copper usage to grow by 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, lower than previous forecasts. China is projected to record demand growth of 1.9% this year, while consumption in the rest of the world is expected to increase by 1.3%.

Despite the slower outlook, long-term demand fundamentals remain positive, ICSG noted.