BMI Forecasts Higher Mineral, Metal Prices in 2026
However, short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, particularly for metals facing renewed US protectionist pressures.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has struck a cautiously optimistic tone for 2026, forecasting that most mineral and metal prices will average higher than in 2025. The outlook is underpinned by declining tariff uncertainty, tighter supply conditions, and resilient demand from net-zero transition sectors, according to the firm’s year-end report.
BMI noted that global trade frictions began easing after tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025, a trend expected to continue through 2026. While isolated tariff flare-ups between the US and select economies remain possible, the firm’s country risk team expects overall uncertainty to decline, supporting commodity demand. However, short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, particularly for metals facing renewed US protectionist pressures.
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Copper stands out as a key risk, with analysts highlighting that the US Secretary of Commerce is due to review the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026. This could pave the way for a 15% duty on refined copper from 2027 and 30% from 2028.
Although China’s housing sector continues to weigh on industrial metals consumption, Fitch expects this to be partially offset by strong growth in green energy sectors, boosting demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.