Macquarie: Copper Rally Running Ahead of Market Fundamentals

Copper  |  2026-07-13 06:05:18   |   By

Copper traded at around $13,800 per tonne ($6.27 per pound) on Thursday, supported by lower oil prices, renewed optimism over U.S.-Iran negotiations, and fresh U.S. tariff proposals targeting a wider range of copper products.

Summary
  • Prices remain elevated: Copper traded near $13,800 per tonne, supported by lower oil prices, optimism over U.S.-Iran talks, and broader U.S. tariff proposals on copper products.
  • Fundamentals look weaker: Global visible copper inventories have risen by more than 870,000 tonnes since early 2025, with LME stocks at an eight-year high and COMEX inventories at record levels
  • Surplus expected: Macquarie cut its 2026 copper demand growth forecast to 1.8% and now expects a 262,000-tonne surplus in 2026, following an estimated 600,000-tonne surplus in 2025.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper prices may remain elevated in the short term, but the recent rally appears to be running ahead of actual market fundamentals, said the latest commodity outlook report from Macquarie Strategy.

Copper traded at around $13,800 per tonne ($6.27 per pound) on Thursday, supported by lower oil prices, renewed optimism over U.S.-Iran negotiations, and fresh U.S. tariff proposals targeting a wider range of copper products. However, investor optimism has pushed prices well beyond what current supply and demand conditions justify, noted Macquarie analysts.

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The bank noted that global copper inventories have increased significantly since the beginning of 2025. The visible stocks of the metal have risen by more than 870,000 tonnes. Inventories on the London Metal Exchange have climbed to their highest level in eight years. Also, COMEX stocks have reached record highs.

Macquarie lowered its 2026 global copper demand growth forecast to 1.8%. It projects a 262,000-tonne surplus in 2026, following an estimated 600,000-tonne surplus in 2025.

Macquarie shared optimistic view about copper's long-term prospects.The bank raised its average 2026 copper price forecast to $13,165 per tonne. The prices could retreat to around $11,000 per tonne by the third quarter of 2027, before gaining strength over the longer term.