'Gold is not done': Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to $4,900

Gold  |  2026-06-30 00:28:31   |   By

The researchers also noted that a recent World Gold Council survey said a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Gold's disappointing performance over the past four months may not signal the end of the precious metal's rally this year.

'Gold is not done,' Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Samantha Dart said in a note on Sunday evening.

Noting the precious metal has gained 123% since 2022, Dart and her team wrote, 'we continue to see further upside, driven by both structural and eventually cyclical factors.'

'Structurally, EM central bank diversification — following the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves — remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end 2026 forecast,' said Dart.

The researchers also noted that a recent World Gold Council survey said a record 45% of the 76 central banks surveyed between February and May expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months.

Cyclically, however, gold faces near-term headwinds as 'a hawkish Fed helps fade the debasement theme' and as markets price in Fed hikes this year amid inflation concerns, weighing on rate-sensitive ETF demand.

'We expect these headwinds to at least partly reverse over time,' wrote Dart.

The researchers expect ETF positioning to gradually rise, consistent with Goldman Sachs economists' view that the Fed will hold rates steady this year and delay an easing cycle until the second half of next year.

'Over the medium term, risks to our gold price forecast remain skewed to the upside on net,' wrote Dart, as broader macro developments eventually accelerate private diversification into gold, including concerns over Western fiscal sustainability.

Precious metals have plummeted since the war in Iran began in late February, with gold prices falling by roughly 24%.

The sell-off has accelerated as inflation readings have come in hot, driven by elevated oil prices.

Investors worry that even as crude prices have retreated, sticky inflation and a resilient labor market could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for longer or even raise them before the year ends. Gold generally competes for investor dollars with yield-bearing assets like bonds.

Year to date, bullion is down more than 6% after reaching a record high in late January.

Gold finally mounted a comeback on Friday, June 26, but the rebound didn't erase the bigger warning in the market.

Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,073.78 an ounce, while August U.S. gold futures climbed 1.2% to $4,096.30, according to CNBC. 

The move came just as the dollar eased off from recent highs following Thursday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, showing prices jumping 4.1% in the 12 months through May, matching economists' forecasts.

However, the relief was narrow. 

CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed traders pricing about a 60% chance of a September rate hike, down from 64% earlier. Gold was still down 2.6% for the week and headed for a fourth straight weekly decline.

The question now is whether this is the start of a gold recovery or just another bounce inside a deeper sell-off.

Courtesy: www.finance.yahoo.com