CBAM Hits Ukrainian Steel Exports, Long Products Slide

In contrast, long products such as rebar and square billet face immediate pressure.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Ukrainian steel exports to the EU are set for a mixed trajectory under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with flat products showing resilience while long products face steep declines, according to a study by GMK Center.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports remain relatively competitive despite a carbon intensity of 2.3 tCO2, which results in CBAM costs €10–15 per tonne higher than rivals. A significant €110/t rise in EU HRC prices since October has helped Ukrainian producers pass on these additional costs, cushioning near-term impacts. However, risks are expected to intensify by 2029–2030 as stricter CBAM rules and increased availability of low-carbon steel reshape the market.

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In contrast, long products such as rebar and square billet face immediate pressure. With carbon intensity around 2.1 tCO2, Ukrainian exporters incur CBAM costs of about €61/t, far above €20/t for electric arc furnace-based competitors. Weak pricing conditions in early 2026 are unlikely to offset these costs, with exports already down 64% year-on-year in the first two months. Annual exports could drop 55% in 2026 and potentially cease entirely by 2029.

Meanwhile, pig iron may retain competitiveness in the medium term, although rising hot-briquetted iron supply could eventually displace it in the EU market.

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