Global Aluminum Supply Risks Rise Amid Gulf Tensions

While short-term supply remains stable, prolonged instability could tighten availability, particularly for primary aluminum products.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Rising geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region are casting uncertainty over global aluminum markets, following reported Iranian attacks on major production facilities operated by Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (Alba). The Aluminum Association said it is closely monitoring the situation, highlighting concerns over worker safety and potential supply chain disruptions.

US Scrap Markets Respond to Middle East Aluminum Supply Disruption

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plays a critical role in global aluminum supply, accounting for around 9% of total unwrought aluminum production and nearly 27% when excluding China and Russia. The region is also a key supplier to the United States, contributing roughly 21% of unwrought and 13% of wrought aluminum imports in 2025.

Even before the attacks, aluminum producers in the region had announced production curtailments of 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes due to energy constraints. The latest disruptions, combined with logistical challenges such as restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz, are complicating both exports of aluminum and imports of raw materials like alumina.

While short-term supply remains stable, prolonged instability could tighten availability, particularly for primary aluminum products. Industry leaders warned that sustained conflict may reshape trade flows and market dynamics in the months ahead.