ICSG: Global Copper Surplus Hits 380,000 Tonnes in 2025

Global refined copper production expanded by 4.2%, with primary output up 3.9% and secondary production from scrap rising 5.8%.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary December data in its February 2026 Copper Bulletin, indicating moderate growth in global copper supply and demand during 2025, alongside a widening market surplus.

Global Copper Market Records Surples in First Nine Months of 2025, ICSG Reports

World copper mine production rose by approximately 1% in 2025. Concentrate output remained broadly flat, while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production increased by 3%. Growth was supported by ramp-ups at new and expanding projects, although lower ore grades and operational disruptions at major mines such as Kamoa and Grasberg constrained gains. Output declined in Chile and Indonesia but increased in Peru, the D.R. Congo and Mongolia, the latter driven by the Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp-up.

Global refined copper production expanded by 4.2%, with primary output up 3.9% and secondary production from scrap rising 5.8%. China and the DRC, accounting for roughly 57% of global refined output, recorded combined growth of 9%, while production excluding these countries fell 1.8%.

World apparent refined copper usage increased about 3%, led by 4% growth in China, which represents 58% of global demand. ICSG estimates a preliminary refined copper surplus of 380,000 tonnes in 2025, widening from 69,000 tonnes in 2024.