Japan’s Steel Output Hit A 1969 Low, And The US Passed It
With exports slipping too, producers are trimming domestic capacity and leaning harder into growth overseas.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Japan just posted its weakest steel year in decades: crude steel output fell 4% in 2025 to 80.67 million metric tons, the lowest since 1969, according to Nikkei citing Japan Iron and Steel Federation data.
What does this mean?
Japanese mills are getting squeezed from both sides. At home, construction is slowing amid labor shortages, and weaker auto demand is cutting orders from a key customer. Abroad, low-priced Chinese steel is swamping export markets as China’s property downturn leaves its mills with extra supply to sell overseas – adding to global oversupply and pushing prices down. That pressure is reshuffling the leaderboard. Japan is expected to rank fourth in 2025 behind China, India, and the US – the first time since 1999 the US has produced more steel than Japan. With exports slipping too, producers are trimming domestic capacity and leaning harder into growth overseas.
Why should I care?
When pricing power fades at home, steelmakers tend to follow their end customers. Nippon Steel is aiming for more exposure to the US and India – via its bid for U.S. Steel and new capacity in India – while rivals look for partnerships abroad. For investors, it’s a sign that “national champions” can start looking like multinationals when domestic demand stalls, changing where profits and risks show up.
The bigger picture: China is exporting its slowdown.
China’s real estate slump isn’t staying in China: it’s pushing excess steel into global markets, intensifying competition and raising the odds of capacity cuts in higher-cost regions. Japan’s drop to 80.67 million tons – and losing the No. 3 spot – shows how quickly oversupply can reorder long-standing industry leaders. Next, the fight likely shifts from volume to efficiency, product mix, and producing close to stable demand.
Courtesy: www.scdailygazette.com