Copper’s Record Run Has Miners Tightening The Tap

Copper’s record-setting run is playing out against a shifting macro backdrop, with traders glued to fresh data from major economies.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper prices dipped slightly from record highs in Beijing trading, but planned Chinese smelter cuts and higher contract premiums from Chilean giant Codelco are keeping the metal near all-time peaks and stirring fresh supply worries.

What does this mean?

Copper is trading at eye-watering levels across the world’s main markets. On China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded contract briefly hit a record 89,920 yuan per ton before easing to 88,700 yuan – roughly $12,535 at an exchange rate of 7.0760 yuan to the dollar – while the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark three-month copper sits at about $11,165 per ton. Prices are elevated not just because of today’s demand, but because traders are bracing for a future supply squeeze. A group of major Chinese smelters plans to cut output by about 10% next year, and analysts at broker Jinrui Futures reckon those reductions will tighten the refined copper market. Codelco’s premium hike on term contracts – especially for buyers looking to profit from arbitrage between US Comex and LME prices by shipping metal into American warehouses – is fueling concerns that copper could become scarcer and pricier in other regions too. On top of that, a weaker US dollar, driven by strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, is another tailwind, since dollar-priced metals look cheaper to buyers using other currencies.

Why should I care?

Copper is a go-to gauge for global industry, and today’s price action shows just how tight conditions are becoming. Planned smelter output cuts of around 10% in China – the world’s biggest refined copper producer and consumer – point to less metal just as the energy transition and grid upgrades keep demand humming. Codelco’s move to lift term premiums, particularly for buyers feeding the US market via Comex–LME arbitrage, hints that regional shortages could flare up even if headline prices take a breather. Meanwhile, other base metals are sending mixed messages: zinc, lead, nickel, and aluminum were modestly higher on Shanghai’s exchange but fell on the LME, while tin dropped in both China and overseas. That split underlines how local demand, currency swings, and trade routes can create very different realities for miners and manufacturers in Asia versus Europe or the US.

The bigger picture: Macro crosscurrents are shaping a new metals cycle.

Copper’s record-setting run is playing out against a shifting macro backdrop, with traders glued to fresh data from major economies. In Europe, investors are eyeing November’s flash harmonized index of consumer prices and core HICP, along with the bloc’s October unemployment rate, for hints about when the European Central Bank might start cutting rates. The UK’s November Nationwide house price index will give another read on how higher borrowing costs are hitting property and construction – both heavy users of copper. Add in expectations of a December rate cut from the Fed, which have pushed the dollar lower and propped up metals more broadly, and you get a setup where easier monetary policy could keep demand resilient even as supply tightens. If that combo sticks, copper’s current strength could morph from a short-lived spike into a longer-lasting, higher-priced cycle for the entire sector.

Courtesy: wwwfinimize.com