Ferrous scrap market stalls amid balanced conditions heading into November

Consensus around the November forecast is notably high at 68%, well above the long-term average of 61%, reflecting broad convergence in market views.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The US ferrous scrap market appears to be entering a holding pattern for November. After a 3.6% price decline in October, the Outlook Trend Indicator has edged up to 52.3, indicating slight bullishness, though the increase is modest and suggests minimal pricing momentum. The Outlook’s forecast model points to a small 0.7% price rise month-on-month.

High forecast consensus masks diverging sentiment between optimistic sellers and cautious buyers

Consensus around the November forecast is notably high at 68%, well above the long-term average of 61%, reflecting broad convergence in market views. Despite that, division is visible across market participants: sellers are the most optimistic with a 58.3 reading, while buyers sit below neutral at 48.7, and brokers remain flat at 50.

Flat pricing expected as balanced inventories and weak demand head into year-end

Inventories are reported near average levels, with a 49.6 reading, suggesting no urgent supply constraints. The dominant market view is “All Unchanged” – a sentiment echoed in open-ended responses, with several pointing to weak demand, stable export flows, and mills largely covered through year-end.

Muted supply-side risks and absent major demand drivers ahead of the holidays further support the outlook for flat pricing. Seasonal considerations, such as winter weather impacts and mill order books already filled, may shape December’s tone more significantly.

With no clear catalyst on the horizon, market participants appear resigned to sideways trading conditions for now.

Courtesy: www.fastmarkets.com