China's refined copper output on track for lowest growth in decades this year
Copper | 2026-09-29 02:19:31 | By Paul Ploumis
Output is expected to grow by between 3% and 3.4% this year, according to forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures, versus 10.4% in 2025.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): China's refined copper output this year is set to grow at the slowest pace in decades as smelters struggle to get feedstock and falling sulphuric acid prices make smelting less profitable, analysts said.
Output is expected to grow by between 3% and 3.4% this year, according to forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng Futures, versus 10.4% in 2025. That would be the lowest rate since at least 2000, according to Reuters' review of official data records.
While growth sits at 4% between January and August, analysts expect a sharp fall in the fourth quarter as a tax crackdown reduces scrap copper supply, aggravating a long-running shortage of copper concentrate, the main feedstock for smelting.
'The concern now is that scrap is tightening at the same time as concentrate, reducing smelters' ability to substitute between raw materials,' said Raghav Jain, head of copper pricing at Argus.
FALLING SULPHURIC ACID PRICES WEAKEN SMELTERS' PROFITABILITY
Smelters are also cutting output because of falling prices for sulphuric acid, a byproduct which has kept smelting profitable despite the dramatic decline in processing fees caused by the concentrate shortage, analysts said.
Sulphuric acid prices have fallen 11% so far in September, according to information provider Oilchem.
Seven Chinese smelters are planning 30 days to 60 days of equipment maintenance in October and November, cutting refined copper supply by around 80,000 metric tons, analysts at consultancy Zhuochuang said in a note last Tuesday.
The rapid expansion of smelting capacity globally has outpaced supply and resulted in a years-long shortage of concentrate.
That has been compounded by temporary supply disruptions following accidents at mines including BHP's Escondida, MMG's Las Bambas and Codelco's El Teniente.
Slowing output in China will likely support copper prices in the last quarter. Brian Peng, an analyst at consultancy CRU, projected on September 23 an average price at $14,500 a ton in the fourth quarter, versus a price range of between $11,700 and $14,875 so far.
Courtesy: www.reuters.com