Global Aluminum Market to See Turbulent Year of Trading: Andy Home
The market is unconvinced that tariffs will be imposed.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Leading columnist Andy Home predicts that 2025 will be a busy year for aluminum trade, largely due to a number of geopolitical concerns.
Since Canada and Mexico are the United States' primary suppliers of aluminum, trade disruptions are likely to result from the new Trump administration's threat of imposing tariffs on imports from these two nations. Trump had alluded to levying tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian and Mexican aluminum shipments into the United States. However, the market does not believe tariffs will be applied.
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As part of its recently proposed sanctions package against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, the European Union (EU) plans to ban the import of Russian aluminum. Compared to 11% in 2023 and 19% in 2022, the EU bloc's proportion of Russian imports nearly fell to 6% in the first ten months of 2024. Russia has been concentrating on supplying Asian markets, especially China, in the interim. Nonetheless, the country's need for imported primary metal will decline as a result of the predicted decline in exports of semi-manufactured goods this year.
According to Home, the market will become even more turbulent due to the extremely high prices of alumina and the depletion of LME supplies of the metal.