A positive start to the week as prices strongly challenge towards important resistances.
LME COPPER - 3 months
Last Price/Change
6083
+53
Resistance
6160/80
6280/6300
Support
5860/80
5780/5800
Outlook / Target
Correction
-
Copper
While long term bear trends are undisturbed, the shorter term trend structure is pointed up with prices continuing to experience an extended period of correction and reconsolidation. Expect immediate rally attempts to be restricted by resistance starting at 6160/80 then again towards the important 6280/6300 zone and unless this upper boundary can be decisively breached, further choppy two-way market activity is anticipated for the time being. Pivotal support remains in place in the 5860/80 zone with a clear and sustained break beneath here required to regenerate downward momentum and signal 5780/5800 next.
Trading Strategy: Would remain on the sidelines for the time being awaiting next clear directional signal.
LME LEAD - 3 months
Last Price/Change
2100
36
Resistance
2120/30
2200/10
Support
2000/10
1950/60
Outlook / Target
Improved
2120/2300
Lead
The short to medium term technical outlook remains clearly positive with completed basing formations capable of supporting advances closer to the 2300 region in the weeks ahead. Interim resistance should be anticipated in and around the 2120/30 area although immediate pullbacks are likely to be restricted to potentially sharp but probably short lived corrective action only for the time being. Nearby supports are visible starting in the 2000/10 zone then again towards 1950/60 with only a clear and sustained break beneath here likely to trigger more serious near term losses.
Trading Strategy: Will continue to utilise corrective weakness to probe the long side of this market.
LME ALUMINIUM - 3 months
Last Price/Change
1837
+14
Resistance
1840/50
1890/1900
Support
1740/50
1700/10
Outlook / Target
Up leg in range
-
Aluminum
While underlying technical studies continue to improve with a broad bottoming process appearing to be under construction, immediate strength still appears to be a component of this consolidative phase with strong resistance anticipated at initially 1840/50 then 1890/1900. Until/unless a clear and sustained break above here can be secured further choppy two-way market activity is to be expected for the time being. Nearby support is now visible on approach to the important 1740/50 zone with only a decisive market close beneath here likely to trigger deeper near term losses.
Trading Strategy: Would still prefer to probe the long side on successful tests of support areas.
LME NICKEL - 3 months
Last Price/Change
13550
+355
Resistance
14600/14700
15600/15700
Support
12200/12300
11500/11600
Outlook / Target
Correction
-
Nickel
While longer term bearish studies are undisturbed with lower targets still readable in the coming weeks, the shorter term outlook has improved with further corrective strength likely in the days ahead. Believe resistance which extends up to the 14600/14700 area could now come under fresh examination although only a clear and sustained break above here would suggest a more important bottom to be in place. Unless achieved this market remains vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness with key support visible in the 12200/12300 zone with close under here is needed to extend falls once more.
Trading Strategy: With profits on shorts secured will look to re-establish on corrective bounces.
LME ZINC - 3 months
Last Price/Change
2295
+50
Resistance
2310/20
2350/60
Support
2210/20
2170/80
Outlook / Target
Improved
2350/2420
Zinc
While longer term trends remain rather flat with prices clearly trapped within the confines of a well established broad and volatile trading range, shorter term trends are pointed up with prices currently experiencing a fresh bull leg within this consolidation pattern. Believe resistance waiting at 2310/20 could now come under renewed examination, which if decisively breached could extend gains closer to the 2350/60 and even 2410/20 areas prior to better supply being encountered. Near term corrective pullbacks should now uncover support starting at 2210/20 then again towards the pivotal 2170/80 zone.
Trading Strategy: Hold all longs/continue to buy on sharp corrective pullbacks looking for 2350/2420 area.
LME TIN - 3 months
Last Price/Change
16200
+375
Resistance
16400/16500
17600/17700
Support
13300/13400
11900/12000
Outlook / Target
Bearish
13400 area
Tin
While the overall technical outlook remains decisively bearish with prices expected to trend lower in the weeks ahead, interim objectives around 13400 have almost been achieved with recent sharp falls appearing in need of correction and/or re-consolidation. However, immediate recovery attempts should meet strong overhead resistance starting in the 16400/16500 area with only a clear and sustained break back above here capable of relieving the prevailing downward pressure and triggering more serious short term gains closer to 17600/17700. Note: close under 13300/13400 would signal 12000 then 9000.
Trading Strategy: With profits on shorts secured will look to re-establish on fresh corrective bounces.
COMEX GOLD - June 2015
Last Price/Change
1202.5
+27.5
Resistance
1220.0/25.0
1245.0/50.0
Support
1170.0/75.0
1130.0/35.0
Outlook / Target
Volatile range
-
Gold
The medium term trend structure continues to flatten out with prices consolidating within the confines of the past 7 month’s broad and choppy trading range. While preliminary technical evidence favours this to be a bottoming process, a break out does not appear imminent with further two-way market action anticipated for the time being. Expect rally attempts to again be restricted by resistance which extends up to the 1220.0/25.0 area with a clear and sustained break above here required to trigger more serious strength closer to the 1245.0/50.0 zone. Pivotal support remains in place around 1170.0/75.0 then 1130.0/35.0.
Trading Strategy: Would remain on sidelines for the time being awaiting next directional signal.
COMEX SILVER - May 2015
Last Price/Change
16.380
+0.744
Resistance
16.60/80
17.40/60
Support
15.20/40
14.60/80
Outlook / Target
Volatile range
-
Silver
While long term downtrends are undisturbed, the short to medium term trend structure has clearly flattened out with prices continuing to oscillate within the confines of a broad and volatile trading range. Good support which extends down to the 15.20/40 area looks to have again cushioned recent weakness with a fresh bounce towards nearby resistance waiting in the 16.60/80 zone now fully anticipated. A clear and sustained break above here is required to trigger more serious short term gains and set up a return to the important 17.40/60 region. Note: a close above here would signal 18.40/60 next.
Trading Strategy: Would continue to probe the long side on dips towards above mentioned supports.