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December 14, 2022

January to October 2022 Metals Balances

The most recent metal balances report shows the primary aluminium, copper, lead and tin metal balances were in deficit and zinc and nickel metal balance was in surplus during January to October 2022. Read on to unpack the latest update on the LME metals balances.

January to October 2022 Metals Balances

The most recent metal balances report shows the primary aluminium, copper, lead and tin metal balances were in deficit and zinc and nickel metal balance was in surplus during January to October 2022. Read on to unpack the latest update on the LME metals balances.

Primary aluminium metal balance in deficit in January to October 2022
 
The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to October 2022 was a deficit of 981 kt which follows a deficit of 1734 kt recorded for the whole of 2021. Demand for primary aluminium for January to October 2022 was 57.72 million tonnes, 18 kt more than in the comparable period in 2021. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and national lockdowns may have distorted the trade statistics. Production in January to October 2022 rose by 378 kt with reductions in Europe more than matched by increases in China and other Asia. Total reported stocks fell over the ten months to close at the end of the period 604 kt below the December 2021 level.  Total LME stocks (Including off warrant stocks) were 681 kt at the end of October 2022 which compares with 1213.4 kt at the end of 2021. Shanghai stocks increased in October but ended the period 145 kt below the December 2021 total.  No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.
 
Overall, global production of primary aluminium rose in January to October 2022 by 378 kt compared with the same period in 2021. Chinese output in January to October was estimated at 33.33 kt an increase of 3 percent year-on-year with the country recording higher availability of imported feedstocks during the early months of the year. Chinese metal production currently accounts for about 59 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand rose by.0.7 per cent compared with the same period in 2021. China became a net importer of unwrought aluminium in 2020. During January to October 2022 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 4901 kt which compares with 4926 kt for the whole of 2021. Exports of semi manufactures rose by 20.8 per cent compared with the January to October 2021 total
 
Japanese demand was up by 22.7 kt and US demand increased by 396 kt. Global demand rose by 0.03 per cent during January to October 2022 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.
 
October metal balances for primary aluminium recorded production at 5773.6 kt and demand at 5832.1 kt.

Copper metal balance in deficit in January to October 2022
 
The copper market recorded a deficit of 693 kt in January to October 2022 which follows a deficit of 336 kt in the whole of 2021. Reported LME stocks (including off warrant stocks) at the end of October 2022 were 12.7 kt higher than at the end of December 2021. Net deliveries out of Shanghai warehouses were 25.3 kt and Comex stocks decreased by 28.2 kt. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns will have distorted the trade statistics. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.
 
World mine production in January to October 2022 was 17.9 million tonnes which was 1.7 per cent higher than the first ten months of 2021. Global refined production for January to October 2022 was 20.57 million tonnes up 1.4 per cent compared with the previous year with significant increases recorded in China and India of 370 kt and 57 kt respectively.
 
Global demand in January to October 2022 was 21.27 million tonnes which was 3.7 per cent higher than the total recorded for January to October 2021. Chinese apparent demand for the period January to October 2022 was 11.88 million tonnes which was 5.4 per cent higher than the comparable period in 2021. Reported output of semi manufactures in China rose by 8.6 per cent. US refined copper production was 851.4 kt which was 41.1 kt higher than the comparable months of 2021.
 
October metal balances for refined copper recorded production at 2094.8 kt and demand was 2096.8kt.

Lead metal balance records deficit in January to October 2022
 
The lead market recorded a deficit of 124 kt in January to October 2022 which follows a deficit of 90.1 kt recorded in the whole of 2021. Total stocks at the end of October were 47.9 kt lower than at the end of 2021. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis, and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns will have distorted the trade statistics.
 
World refined production during January to October 2022 from both primary and secondary sources was 12242.2 kt which was 3.9 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2021. Chinese apparent demand was estimated at 6353.0 kt which was 408 kt above the comparable period in 2021 and represented 52 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 4 kt for January to October 2022 compared to the same months of 2021.
 
October metal balances for refined lead recorded production at 1282.8 kt and demand at 1286.0 kt.

Zinc metal balance records surplus in January to October 2022
 
The zinc market was in surplus by 294 kt during January to October 2022 which compares with a deficit of 115.6 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks decreased by 148.8 kt during January and October 2022 which included a net decrease in Shanghai of 13.5 kt over the period. LME (including off warrant) stocks closed 152 kt below the December 2021 level. Total LME stocks represent 13 per cent of the global total with the bulk of the metal held in Asian and US warehouses. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.
 
Global refined production fell in January to October 2022 by 0.9 per cent and demand was 4.5 per cent lower compared to the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese apparent demand was, at 428.8 kt, 4.2 per cent below the equivalent total for January to October 2021.
 
World demand was 4.5 per cent lower than from the level recorded for January to October 2021. Chinese apparent demand was 5585.4 kt which is 50 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
 
October metal balances for slab zinc recorded production was 1195.0 kt and demand at 1163.7 kt.

Nickel metal balance records surplus in January to October 2022
 
The nickel market was in deficit during January to October 2022 with apparent demand exceeding production by 116.6 kt. In the whole of 2021, the calculated deficit was 180.7 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME (Including Off warrant stocks) at the end of October 2022 were 47.8 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to October 2022 totalled 2371.5 kt and demand was 2488.1 kt.
 
Mine production during January to October 2022 was 2560.6kt, 326 kt above the comparable 2021 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output fell by 62.3 kt compared with the first ten months 2021 and apparent demand in China was 1418.1 kt, 39.6 kt higher than in the previous year. In Indonesia, smelter/refinery production in January to October 2022 was 866.4 kt which is 20 per cent higher than 2021.
 
World apparent demand was 38.1 kt higher in January to October 2022 than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.
 
October metal balances for nickel smelter/refinery recorded production at 251.0 kt and demand was 269.6 kt.

Tin metal balance records deficit in January to October 2022
 
The tin market recorded a deficit of 12.6 kt during January to October 2022.  Chinese demand is calculated on an apparent basis using reported stocks on the Shanghai exchange.  Demand is measured on an apparent basis and it is likely that the full effects of national lockdowns have not been fully reflected in the trade statistics.
 
Global reported production of refined metal was down by 37 kt, compared with the January to October 2021 total. Chinese reported production reached a total of 133.9 kt for the January to October period. Japanese apparent demand was 20.0 kt which was 4.2 per cent below the comparable total for 2021, Apparent demand in China was 20.6 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.
 
Global tin demand during January to October 2022 was 296.0 kt which was 8 per cent lower than the comparable period of 2021. US apparent demand fell by 8.2 per cent year on year to 24.8 kt
 
October metal balances for refined tin recorded production at 31.5 kt and consumption at 34.1 kt.  

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