Stifel Unveils Solid Waste Revising Models for COVID-19

SEATTLE (Waste 360): In his latest report, “Solid Waste: Revising Models for C-19, Volume Down, Price Durable, Deal Flow Slows, FCF Stands Out,” Michael E. Hoffman, managing director and group head of diversified industrials at Stifel, explains that the impact of COVID-19 on solid waste will “look like both 9/11 and the Great Recession.”

“The former was a shock and awe; the consumer paused,” according to Hoffman. “The latter, the U.S./North American economies were over levered, which [they are] not now, but wholesale business shutdowns had a volume impact. Today, solid waste has more control of cost/capital than ever before. Social distancing and big urban settings forcing closure of food, beverage, hospitality and entertainment lead to a big drop in collected volume and commercial customers asking for service on hold/cancellations.”

“We assume an annual 15 percent hit to volume of 10 percent for third-party commercial, C&D [construction and demolition] and special waste volume and 5 percent direct commercial collection sales cut in half for two months. Residential volumes will be up and, in many cases, contracts allow for charging for extra bin/bag pickups,” he added.

Courtesy: www.waste360.com