SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The latest estimates by the Chinese research house Antaike foresees notable fall in nickel from this year’s multi-year highs in 2022. The recovery in production will ensure a surplus nickel market next year, it said.
Speaking at the China International Nickel & Cobalt Industry Forum held recently in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, Antaike analyst Chen Ruirui said that global nickel production is expected to increase from 2.680 million tonnes this year to 3.013 million tonnes in 2022. The global consumption too is projected to hit 2.968 million tonnes in 2022, compared with 2.705 million tonnes in 2021. This essentially means that the market will swing from a deficit of 25,000 tonnes in 2021 to a surplus of 45,000 tonnes next year.
The Chinese production will rise from 655,000 tonnes in 2021 to 673,000 tonnes in 2022. Meantime, the consumption will see further rise from 1.505 million tonnes to 1.600 million tonnes over the year. It must be noted that the demand for nickel had remained solid this year, driven by stainless steel and battery sectors.
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The supply gut situation in 2022 will put pressure of global nickel prices, which are forecast to decline to $17,000 per tonne in 2022, significantly down from $18,500 per tonne this year, Antaike said.