AIIS Forecasts 16% Growth to US Finished Steel Imports in 2017

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The American Institute of Iron and Steel (AIIS) has predicted 16% growth to finished steel imports by the US during the entire year 2017. The above forecast is based on the import trends for the first ten months of the current year.

According to AIIS, the total and finished steel imports by the US during Jan-Oct ’17 totaled 32.85 million NT and 25.45 million NT respectively. The imports of total steel during the month remained more or less unchanged at 3.119 million NT, whereas the imports of finished steel declined marginally by 0.4% over the previous month to 2.493 million NT.

As per data, finished steel imports by the country are likely to total 30.539 million net tons (Mt), significantly higher by 16.0% when matched with the yearly import total of 26.338 Mt in 2016. The annualized imports of total steel are expected to grow by nearly 19.4% from 33.022 Mt in 2016 to 39.420 Mt in 2017.

The imports from Russia are likely to witness the strongest jump, whereas the imports of Japanese finished steel are likely to fall the most. The imports of finished steel mill products from Russia are estimated to witness 180% jump over the previous year. The other countries that are likely to report increased volume of export to the US are Taiwan (+27.2%) and Germany (+16.8). On the other hand, the imports from Japan may decline sharply by nearly 13%. The imported volume from China may also see marginal decline.

Among various steel mill products, Oil Country Goods are likely to report biggest jump in import volumes. The imports are projected to surge higher by more than 203% from 1.152 Mt in 2016 to 3.494 Mt in this year. The imports of Line Pipes are likely to increase by nearly 69% during the year. The other products that may report notable jump in import volumes during the whole year 2017 are Standard Pipe (+44.9%), Ingots and Billets and Slabs (+39.2%) and Mechanical Tubing (+39.2%).

On the other hand, imports of cut Length Plates are likely to decline the most in 2017 upon comparison with the previous year, falling by nearly 31% from 1.228 Mt in 2016 to as low as 851,652 tonnes in 2017. The other products that may see drop in import volumes during the year are Hot Rolled Sheets (-25.2%), Reinforcing Bars (-17.3%) and Drawn Wire (-1.5%)

The average finished steel imports during the current 3-month period from August to October 2017 based on preliminary imports has recorded 12.2% decline when matched with the rolling average of actual imports during the prior three months from May to July ’17.