LME aluminum prices to average between $2,000 and $2,200 /ton in 2014 , say industry experts
Metal Recycling News | 2013-06-05 08:11:52 | By Paul Ploumis
According to the outcome of the polls conducted among the participants at the 6th Harbor Aluminum outlook summit being held here
CHICAGO (Scrap Monster) : According to the outcome of the polls conducted among the participants at the 6th Harbor Aluminum outlook summit being held in Chicago, the LME aluminum prices are less likely to show any significant improvement in 2014 as well.
The polls were conducted among 300 attendees of the summit comprising of aluminum producers, buyers, metal suppliers and downstream consumers. According to the polls, 41% of the participants thought that aluminum prices are currently overvalued, where as 34% believed that the prices are undervalued. Only 25% were of the opinion that the prices are fairly valued.
Majority (63%) of the participants firmly believed that the LME aluminum prices are likely to average between $2,000 and $2,200 per ton in 2014. A good number (27%) were of the opinion that the aluminum price will remain below $2,000 levels. 9% held the view that the prices would be range bound between $2,200 and $2,400 per ton. Only 1% supposed the prices would go higher than $2,400 per ton.
Higher freight costs accounted for high spot premiums according to 53% of the participants, while 43% held the view that LME’s unwillingness to amend rules is triggering high spot aluminum premiums. Only 2% agreed to the view that supply-demand dynamics is the primary cause of higher premiums.
Forty percent of the attendees see Chinese demand and manufacturing slowdown as the biggest threat to the industry in the latter half of 2013. 29% fear a return of recession in US to be the largest threat. A deeper recession in the Europe was the concern of nearly 17% of the participants.