World refined copper market in 64 kt deficit during Jan-Oct '16

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has announced publication of January 2017 Copper Bulletin, which provides preliminary copper supply and demand data for the month of October 2016. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production surplus of around 48,000 metric tonnes during the month. However, the cumulative data for the first ten months of the year points to a production deficit of nearly 64,000 metric tonnes.

The refined copper market balance for the month of October ‘16 alone showed an apparent production surplus of around 48,000 metric tonnes. The refined copper balance for the first ten-month period of the year ended in production deficit of around 64,000 metric tonnes. This is mainly on account of the 5% rise in Chinese apparent demand during this period. After adjusting for the change in Chinese bonded stocks, the refined copper balance indicated production deficit of around 24,000 t.

World refined copper production increased by nearly 3.0% (nearly 540,000 t) during the first ten months of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding ten-month period from January to October in 2015. Primary production was up 2.5%, whereas the secondary production was up by 6%. The refined copper production during the month witnessed significant growth of 7% in China. The production by the US witnessed an increase of 12%. The expansion of SX-EW capacity resulted in 18% jump in production by Mexico during the month. The output by Chile and Japan witnessed decline of 1% and rise of 3% respectively. On regional basis, refined output by the Americas, Asia and Oceania increased by 3%, 6% and 3% respectively. On the other hand, the refined copper output by African region declined by 12%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The production by these two countries declined by aggregated 13% during this period. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 3.0%.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 5% (nearly 815,000 t) during the initial ten-month period of 2016. Concentrate production was up by 7.0% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 43%, primarily on account of new and expanded capacities becoming online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Indonesia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. On the other hand, the production declined by 4.5% in Chile during the ten-month period. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 6% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 10% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 6.0% rise in output. On the other hand, the African region recorded production decline of 4%. The copper mine output by the European and Oceania region remained flat during Jan-Oct ‘16.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 3% during January to October last year in comparison with the year before. The Chinese apparent demand increased sharply by 5%. The metal usage by the US and Japan declined by 4% and 3% respectively. Region-wise, the usage by Asia increased by 4%. The European demand rose by 1.5%, whereas it declined by 3.5% in the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first ten months of 2016:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes