Primary Aluminum Market Deficit Shrinks in Jan-Sep ‘17

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The world primary aluminum market continued to remain in deficit during the first three quarters of the current year. However, the market deficit narrowed marginally in September when compared with the eight-month period of the year. This is in accordance with the data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) in its Metals Balances Report for the period from January to September 2017.

As per the WBMS report, the calculated market balance of world primary aluminum ended in deficit of 1,463 kt during the first nine-month period of 2017. The deficit has dropped marginally when compared with the levels reported during the end of August. The primary aluminum market deficit at the end of August this year was 1,572 kt. Also, the deficit level at the end of the initial three quarters of the current year has almost doubled from end-2016 levels of 770 kt.

The production of primary aluminum has surged higher by 1.130 million tonnes during the opening nine months of the current year. The total reported stock of metal witnessed marginal decline by 5,000 tonnes during the month of September this year. The stocks of the metal at the end of the eight-month period in 2017 stood at 2,279 kt, which is sufficient enough to meet global demand for nearly 14 days. It must be noted that the stock levels had stood at 2,761 kt at the end of 2016. The combined stocks held in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo exchanges totaled 1.848 million tonnes at the end of September, significantly lower by 476 kt when matched with the December 2016 levels.

Overall global production rose considerably by nearly 2.6% during the nine-month period from January to September in 2017. The leading producer of the metal during this period was China. The Chinese aluminum production was estimated at 24,661 kt during this period. The country accounted for more than 56% of the global aluminum production during Jan-Sep ’17. The production by the EU region reported marginal increase of 0.2%, whereas the output from NAFTA region declined by 2.2% from the year-ago level. The primary aluminum output during the month of September 2017 totaled 4,665.0 kt. Also, the monthly consumption of primary aluminum totaled 4,769.7 kt in September this year.

The net exports by Chinese aluminum semi manufacturers totaled 2,916 kt during the first nine months of the year, rising by nearly 4% over the previous year. The exports had totaled 2,806 kt during January to September in 2016.

The WBMS report also states that the global aluminum demand increased by 1.877 million tons during January to September in 2017 to total 45.49 million tonnes, when matched with the corresponding nine-month period in 2016. The Chinese apparent demand was modestly higher by 5.2% when compared with 2016. Also, EU-28 demand stood higher by 132 kt during January to September this year when matched with the comparable nine-month period in 2016.