LONDON (Scrap Monster): Nickel prices to average $18,300 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of this year and copper prices to average $8,350 per metric ton, according to the latest forecast released by Commerzbank, second-largest German bank after Deutsche Bank.
The German bank also forecasts nickel prices to average $18,800 per metric ton in the first quarter of 2013 and copper prices to average $8,600 a ton.
--Aluminum prices to average $2,100 per metric ton in Q4 2012 and $2,200 a metric ton in Q1 2013;
--Lead prices to average $2,250 per metric ton in Q4 this year and $2,300 a metric ton Q1 2013;
--Zinc prices to average $2,100 per metric ton in Q4 this year and $2,150 per metric ton Q1 2013; and
--Tin to average $20,600 per metric ton in Q4 this year and $21,200 a metric ton Q1 2013.
Further gains in base metals despite an uptick already from quantitative-easing announcements from central banks and the go-ahead for infrastructure projects in China, the German bank added.
The analysts with Commerzbank stated that, “These metals still have "catch-up potential" compared to other cyclical commodities, such as energy. Two years ago, commodities prices generally rose 30% within four months of the second round of U.S. quantitative easing.”
"If the positive sentiment on the financial markets persists, the current price rally is likely to continue. But the recent price increases were also partly driven by speculation, and we could see intermittent profit-taking lead to occasional price setbacks,” they added.
“The price increases which we expect for the medium to long term should also be fundamentally supported. The Chinese government and central bank are likely to take massive action to counter any further weakening in the local economy, and launch economic stimulus programs, which should keep demand for metals high,” they continued.
“Furthermore, the positive development on the U.S. housing market, which among others, reflects the rising number of building permits and housing starts, should also prove stimulative," Commerzbank concluded.
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