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ISRIs Commodity Update February 12, 2013 03:29:07 AM

Markets off to a slow start

Paul Ploumis
ScrapMonster Author
For the week beginning Monday, February 11th Markets were off to a slow start this week as the DJ-UBS Commodity Futures Index dropped by half a percentage point and the major U.S. stock indexes were all in negative territory in early afternoon trading. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and trading volumes at the London Metal Exchange were reportedly light today as base metal prices remain in a holding pattern.

Markets off to a slow start

For the week beginning Monday, February 11th

Markets were off to a slow start this week as the DJ-UBS Commodity Futures Index dropped by half a percentage point and the major U.S. stock indexes were all in negative territory in early afternoon trading.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed for this week’s Lunar New Year celebrations and trading volumes at the London Metal Exchange were reportedly light today as base metal prices remain in a holding pattern. LME official 3-mo. copper was little changed this morning at $8,258/mt ($3.746/lb.) but 3-mo. copper dipped below $8,200/mt in PM trading. Most of the other base metals were down in afternoon trading in London with only 3-mo. tin holding onto gains after having recently trading around $24,850/mt.

In New York, COMEX Mar copper was down nearly 4 cents to $3.72/lb. while gold futures retreated below $1,650/to. Crude oil futures bucked the trend, rebounding above $96/bbl as the dollar eased to $1.341 vs the Euro. On Wall Street, the Dow Industrials slipped 0.2% early this afternoon as the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was little changed around 1.96%.

 

 

Last

CHG

% CHG

Prior Settle

Open

High

Low

COMEX Copper Mar ($/lb.) 

3.7205

-0.039

-1.0%

3.7595

3.7625

3.769

3.708

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX Gold Apr ($/to) 

1,647.2

-19.7

-1.2%

1,666.9

1,667.9

1,670.3

1,644.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX Silver Mar ($/to) 

30.9

-0.6

-1.8%

31.4

31.5

31.5

30.9

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude  Mar ($/bbl) 

96.58

0.86

0.9%

95.72

95.79

96.95

94.97

SHFE Aluminum May (RMB/mt) 

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

SHFE Copper May (RMB/mt) 

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SHFE Zinc May (RMB/mt) 

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

 

The Monday Report: February 11, 2013                                                 

This week we’ll see new U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization figures for January and the consensus forecast is for a modest (+0.2%) increase in IP and a slight improvement in capacity utilization. New data also come out this week on U.S. retail sales, business inventories, consumer sentiment and the Treasury budget as the next deadline on spending cuts quickly approaches.

Overseas we’ll also get industrial production numbers for the Euro-zone as well as the flash 4Q GDP estimate for the Euro area. Market conditions in Asia are expected to be quiet this week given the holiday celebrations there but Japan’s currency market interventions are expected to be on the table at this week’s meeting of G-20 finance ministers.

We’ll have an in-depth look at the full year 2012 scrap trade data for the U.S., along with the economic, commodity and scrap market highlights in this week’s Friday Report.

Date

 

Time

 

Release

 

 

Period

 

Consensus

Prior

Feb 12

 

14:00

 

 Treasury Budget

 

 

Jan

 

-$2.0B

-$27.4B

Feb 13

 

07:00

 

MBA Mortgage Index

 

 

02/09

 

NA

3.4%

Feb 13

 

08:30

 

 Retail Sales

 

 

Jan

 

0.1%

0.5%

Feb 13

 

08:30

 

 Retail Sales ex-auto

 

 

Jan

 

0.1%

0.3%

Feb 13

 

08:30

 

 Export Prices ex-ag.

 

 

Jan

 

NA

-0.2%

Feb 13

 

08:30

 

 Import Prices ex-oil

 

 

Jan

 

NA

-0.1%

Feb 13

 

10:00

 

 Business Inventories

 

 

Dec

 

0.3%

0.3%

Feb 13

 

10:30

 

Crude Inventories

 

 

02/09

 

NA

2.623M

Feb 14

 

08:30

 

 Initial Claims

 

 

02/09

 

365K

366K

Feb 14

 

08:30

 

 Continuing Claims

 

 

02/02

 

3200K

3224K

Feb 14

 

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

 

02/09

 

NA

NA

Feb 15

 

08:30

 

Empire Manufacturing

 

 

Feb

 

0.0

-7.8

Feb 15

 

09:00

Net Long-Term TIC Flows

 

Dec

 

NA

$52.3B

Feb 15

 

09:15

 

 Industrial Production

 

 

Jan

 

0.2%

0.3%

Feb 15

 

09:15

 

 Capacity Utilization

 

 

Jan

 

78.9%

78.8%

Feb 15

 

09:55

 

 Mich Sentiment

 

 

Feb

 

73.5

73.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices*  (dollars per gallon)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Change from

 

 

 

 

 

01/21/13

 

01/28/13

 

02/04/13

 

week ago

 

year ago

U.S.

 

 

 

3.902

 

3.927

 

4.022

 

0.095

 

0.166

East Coast

 

 

 

4.000

 

4.023

 

4.088

 

0.065

 

0.140

New England

 

 

4.158

 

4.181

 

4.237

 

0.056

 

0.136

Central Atlantic

 

 

4.089

 

4.106

 

4.165

 

0.059

 

0.119

Lower Atlantic

 

 

3.904

 

3.931

 

4.001

 

0.070

 

0.155

Midwest

 

 

 

3.845

 

3.866

 

3.978

 

0.112

 

0.227

Gulf Coast

 

 

 

3.831

 

3.845

 

3.941

 

0.096

 

0.166

Rocky Mountain

 

 

3.678

 

3.736

 

3.844

 

0.108

 

0.027

West Coast

 

 

 

4.004

 

4.049

 

4.166

 

0.117

 

0.130

West Coast less California

 

3.911

 

3.946

 

4.076

 

0.130

 

0.148

California

 

 

 

4.082

 

4.137

 

4.242

 

0.105

 

0.114

*prices include all taxes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

















“11/02/2013 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, show diverging growth patterns in the economic outlook of major economies.

In the United States and the United Kingdom, the CLIs continue to point to economic growth firming but in the United Kingdom the signs are slightly weaker compared to last month's assessment.

In Japan and Brazil, signs of growth picking up are emerging.

In the Euro Area as a whole, and in particular in Italy and Germany, the CLIs point to a stabilisation in growth prospects; however in France growth is expected to remain weak.

In China and India, the CLIs point to growth below trend compared with more positive signals in last month's assessment. In Canada and Russia the CLIs continue to point to growth below trend.”

 

© 2013 Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc.

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