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ISRIs Commodity Update January 29, 2014 03:30:46 AM

ISRI Monday Report-For the week beginning Monday January 27th

Paul Ploumis
ScrapMonster Author
Markets got off to a sluggish start this week as the DJ-UBS Commodity Futures Index dipped 1.2% this morning and the major U.S. stock indexes lost ground following earlier losses in Europe and Asia

ISRI Monday Report-For the week beginning Monday January 27th

Markets got off to a sluggish start this week as the DJ-UBS Commodity Futures Index dipped 1.2% this morning and the major U.S. stock indexes lost ground following earlier losses in Europe and Asia. A below par reading on U.S. new home sales, concerns about this week’s FOMC meeting and jitters surrounding emerging market growth all reportedly weighed on sentiment. In London, nonferrous metal prices wavered with LME 3-mo. copper and aluminum reportedly trading as low as $7,148.50/mt (=$3.243/lb.) and $1,751.25/mt (=79.4 cents/lb.), respectively. LME 3-mo. nickel also reportedly dipped as low as $14,108/mt (=$6.40/lb.) earlier today. In New York, precious metal prices were holding relatively steady while crude oil futures slipped below $96/bbl. In foreign exchange trading the dollar was little changed against the Euro around $1.368 while in the bond market the yield on 10-year Treasury notes approached 2.75%.

Plenty of economic news in store this week as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets this week and investors will be looking closely at any changes in the Fed’s guidance and tapering of its asset purchase program. Scheduled U.S. economic releases this week include the latest figures on durable goods orders, personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, and the advanced reading on 4th quarter GDP. The consensus forecast is that the economy expanded around 3% in the final quarter of 2013. Overseas we’ll get additional readings on Chinese manufacturing and European unemployment and inflation.

 

. 

Last

CHG

% CHG

Prior Settle

Open

High

Low

COMEX Copper Mar

($/lb)

3.259

-0.01

-0.4%

3.2715

3.26

3.2875

3.255

COMEX Gold Feb

($/to)

1,264.0

-0.3

0.0%

1,264.3

1,270.1

1,279.8

1,257.1

COMEX Silver Mar

($/to)

19.85

0.1

0.4%

19.77

19.97

20.09

19.73

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude

Mar ($/bbl)

95.49

-1.2

-1.2%

96.64

96.9

97.18

95.24

SHFE Aluminum Apr

(RMB/mt)

13,585

-90

0.7%

13,675

13,660

13,680

13,530

SHFE Copper Apr

(RMB/mt)

51,030

-250

-0.5%

51,280

51,190

51,310

50,840

SHFE Zinc Apr

(RMB/mt)

15,120

-105

-0.7%

15,225

15,180

15,195

15,060

Following the recent barrage of economic releases, the calendar cools off this week with relatively few reports due out on consumer credit, wholesale inventories, initial unemployment claims and the budget. Overseas we'll get new figures from China on their trade balance and inflation in April, while a number of Federal Reserve officials will be giving speeches around the country this week, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the Chicago Fed banking conference on Friday. We'll have a look at the key economic, commodity and scrap market developments, including a closer look at U.S. first quarter scrap exports by commodity, in this week's Friday Report.

 

Date

Time

Release

Period

Consensus

Prior

Jan 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Dec

457K

445K

Jan 28

08:30

Durable Orders

Dec

2.1%

3.4%

Jan 28

08:30

Durable Orders-ex transportation

Dec

0.6%

1.2%

Jan 28

09:00

Case-Shiller 20-city index

Nov

13.8%

13.6%

Jan 28

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Jan

77.5

78.1

Jan 29

07:00

MBA Mortgage Index

01/25

NA

4.7%

Jan 29

10:30

Crude Inventories

01/25

NA

0.990M

Jan 29

14:00

FOMC Rate Decision

Jan

0.25%

0.25%

Jan 30

08:30

Initial Claims

01/25

325K

326K

Jan 30

08:30

Continuing Claims

01/18

3000K

3056K

Jan 30

08:30

GDP-Adv

Q4

3.0%

4.1%

Jan 30

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv

Q4

1.2%

2.0%

Jan 30

10:00

Pending Home Sales

Dec

-0.2%

0.2%

Jan 30

10:30

Natural Gas Inventories

01/25

NA

-107 bcf

Jan 31

08:30

Personal Income

Dec

0.2%

0.2%

Jan 31

08:30

Personal Spending

Dec

0.2%

0.5%

Jan 31

08:30

PCE Prices-Core

Dec

0.1%

0.1%

Jan 31

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q4

0.4%

0.4%

Jan 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jan

58.0

60.8

Jan 31

09:55

Michigan Sentiment-Final

Jan

80.4

80.4

 

U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices* (dollars per gallon)

 

 

 

 

 

Change from

 

01/06/14

01/13/14

01/20/14

 

week ago

year ago

U.S.

3.910

3.886

3.873


-0.013

-0.029

East Coast

3.950

3.940

3.946


0.006

-0.054

    New England

4.115

4.107

4.118


0.011

-0.040

    Central Atlantic

4.046

4.045

4.060


0.015

-0.029

    Lower Atlantic

3.847

3.831

3.829


-0.002

-0.075

Midwest

3.888

3.854

3.830


-0.024

-0.015

Gulf Coast

3.802

3.780

3.771


-0.009

-0.060

Rocky Mountain

3.901

3.886

3.860


-0.026

0.182

West Coast

4.034

3.996

3.966


-0.030

-0.038

    West Coast less California

3.934

3.891

3.861


-0.030

-0.050

   California

4.119

4.085

4.056


-0.029

-0.026

*prices include all taxes

 

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