ICSG's preliminary copper data points to production deficit in 2016

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has announced publication of March 2017 Copper Bulletin, which provides preliminary copper supply and demand data for the month of December 2016. According to preliminary ICSG data, world refined copper balance for 2016 indicates a deficit of around 50,000 tonnes in 2016.

The refined copper balance for the entire year 2016 ended in production deficit of around 50,000 metric tonnes. This is mainly on account of the 2.5% rise in Chinese apparent demand during the year. After adjusting for the change in Chinese bonded stocks, the refined copper balance indicated production deficit of around 42,000 t. The refined copper market showed a marginal surplus of 20,000 t in December 2016 alone.

World refined copper production increased by nearly 2.5% (nearly 530,000 t) during 2016 in comparison with 2015. Primary production was up 3.0%, whereas the secondary production declined marginally by 2.0%. The refined copper production during the year witnessed significant growth of 6% in China. The production by the US and Japan witnessed an increase of 7% and 5% respectively. The expansion of SX-EW capacity contributed to the 16% jump in production by Mexico during the month. On the other hand, the output by Chile witnessed decline of 3%. On regional basis, refined output by the Americas and Asia increased by 1% and 6% respectively. Meantime, the refined copper output by African region declined by 10%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The production by these two countries declined by aggregated 11% during the year. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 2.0%. The refined production of copper remained essentially unchanged in Oceania region.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 5% (nearly 1 Million tonnes) during 2016. Concentrate production was up by 7.0% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 38%, primarily on account of new and expanded capacities becoming online during the past two years. The recovery in production by Canada, the US and Indonesia and expanded capacity in Mexico also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. On the other hand, the production declined by 3.8% in Chile during the year. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 4.5% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 11.5% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 6.0% rise in output. On the other hand, the African region recorded production decline of 3.5%. The copper mine output by the European and Oceania region remained essentially flat during 2016.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 2% during 2016 in comparison with the year prior to that. The Chinese apparent demand increased modestly by 2.5%. The metal usage by the US and Japan declined by 2% and 2.5% respectively. Region-wise, the usage by Asia increased by 3.0%. The European demand rose by 2%, whereas it declined by 3% in the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the entire year 2016:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes