ICSG: Refined copper market ends in surplus of 42 kt during first quarter of 2016

SPOKANE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for the month of March this year in its June 2016 Copper Bulletin. According to preliminary ICSG data, copper production and usage data points to an apparent production deficit of nearly 40,000 metric tonnes.

The refined copper market balance for the month of March ‘16 showed an apparent production deficit of nearly 40,000 metric tonnes. The production deficit for the month, after making seasonal adjustments for global refined copper production and usage, stood at 40,000 metric tonnes. The refined copper balance for the first quarter of the year ended in production surplus of around 42,000 metric tonnes as compared with a surplus of around 143,000 tonnes during the same period in 2015.

World refined production increased by nearly 5% (nearly 290,000 t) during the first quarter of 2016 in comparison with the corresponding quarter last year. Primary production was up 5%, whereas the secondary production was up by 5.5%. The refined copper production during the month witnessed significant growth of 10.0% in China. The production by the US witnessed an increase of 23%. The output by Chile and Japan increased by 5% and 6% respectively. The other regions to report rise in refined output were the Americas (9%), Asia (8%) and Oceania (14%). On the other hand, the refined copper output by African region declined by 16%. The declined output from the region was mainly on account of temporary production cuts in some regions of the DRC and Zambia. The output by European region too witnessed decline of 3%. The capacity utilization rate of refineries increased marginally from 83% in Q1 2015 to 85% during the first quarter this year.

The world copper mine production has increased by around 4.5% (nearly 215,000 t) during the first quarter of 2016. Concentrate production was up by 5.5% during the period. The mine output from Peru reported significant improvement of 51%, primarily due to new and expanded capacities that has come online during the past several months. The recovery in production by Indonesia, the US and Mongolia also contributed to the sharp recovery in production levels. The production declined by 3% in Chile during the month. The mine output from the DRC too dropped sharply by 13% year-on-year. Region-wise, Asia recorded 5% rise in production. Also Americas recorded 7.5% rise in output. On the other hand, the Africa and the Oceania regions recorded production decline of 4% and 1.5% respectively. The mine output by the European region remained flat during the quarter. The mine capacity utilization rates remained essentially unchanged during Q1 this year when compared with the year-ago period.

Meantime, global usage of the metal is estimated to have increased by around 7% during Q1 2016 in comparison with the year before. The Chinese apparent demand increased sharply by 17%. The usage by world countries excluding China has dropped by 1.5%. The European demand rose by 4%, whereas it declined by 17% and 3.5% in Africa and the Americas.

The table given below provides World Refined Copper Supply Trends for the first three months of the current year:

Note: The above figures are in thousand metric tonnes