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LISBON (Scrap Monster): The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) is anticipated that there will be a small decline in world demand for refined zinc metal of 0.3% to 12.71 million tonnes in 2012 followed by a 3.8% increase to 13.19 million tonnes in 2013.

European demand is forecast to fall by 5.5% this year mainly as a consequence of reductions in Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain. However, in 2013, a partial recovery in usage in the region of 2.5% is forecast.

After taking into account the latest official information it is expected that Chinese demand will increase by a limited 0.5% in 2012 with more robust growth of 5.6% anticipated in 2013.

Elsewhere demand is forecast to remain constant at near to half a million tonnes in Japan, to continue to increase in India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea and Turkey, and to rise by 1.8% this year and 1.1% in 2013 in the United States.

Global zinc mine output is forecast to increase by 5% in 2012 to 13.60 million tonnes and a further 2.7% in 2013 to 13.96 million tonnes.

The rise in 2012 will be primarily due to an expected increase in Chinese output of 13.7% which has been influenced by significant reported rises in a number of provinces, most notably Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Guangxi, Sichuan and Yunnan.

In 2013, a further forecast increase in China of 2.7% will be supplemented by additional production in a number of other countries including Australia, Burkina Faso, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Portugal and the United States.

World refined zinc metal output is forecast to fall by 2% to 12.86 million tonnes and then to rise by 4.8% to 13.48 million tonnes in 2013.

An anticipated 5.2% fall in Chinese production this year will be the first reduction for 23 years. However, in 2013, a number of expansions are expected to result in rise in output in China of 9.1%. Production is also expected to be higher in Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Peru.

As a consequence of the latest information received from its member countries, the Group expects supply to continue to exceed demand in the world refined zinc metal market both in 2012 and 2013. A surplus of 153kt is forecast this year, with a more significant excess of 293kt anticipated in 2013.