Asia Tin Week Paints Mixed Outlook for Chinese Tin Production

SEATTLE (ITRI.CO.UK): Speakers at ITRI's 2017 Asia Tin Week in Kunming in September presented different perspectives on the medium-term outlook for China's tin production, with production expected to remain static or decline slightly in the coming years.

John Johnson, CEO of CRU China, outlined how China's 'One Belt One Road (OBOR)' policy is intended to support the export of commodities in domestic surpluses, such as refined tin, and to import or invest in commodities in deficit such as tin concentrate. John projected that China's refined tin production in the medium-term would also be supported somewhat by higher prices.

Yue Min, Marketing Director of Yunnan Tin Company, held the view that China's tin production would be affected by a shortage of tin concentrates as well as higher costs as a result of stricter environmental regulation. Yue believed that secondary tin may play an important role in sustaining production, which would also be driven by consumption growth as a result of China's urbanization, new applications of tin and the OBOR policy.

Xu Pu, General Manager of Shenzhen Fuyingda Industrial Technology Company, suggested that China's tin production would be impacted by slower demand growth and higher mining costs as both a result of stricter environmental rules and the deteriorating quality and grade of domestic tin resources.

ITRI View: Our view is that China's refined tin production in the medium-term is likely to be directly impacted by declining production and imports from Myanmar. Higher mine production in some areas of China such as Hunan and Inner Mongolia and a modest recovery in secondary tin production is expected but will be unlikely to offset the decline in imported concentrate. We project that China's mined tin production will decline in the long-term as mining costs rise to due to lower grades and reduced quality of tin resources available for extraction domestically.

Courtesy: www. itri.co.uk